The highest figure which I have heard mentioned by a reliable authority
is L100,000,000. Personally, I think even this much too high. It could
only be realised if subscriptions from special quarters, as, for
example, German hoards abroad, and German-Americans, were to provide the
greater part of it, which would only be the case if it were part of a
settlement which was of great and obvious advantage to Germany. A loan
to Germany, on Germany's own credit, yielding, say, 8 to 10 per cent.,
would not in my opinion be an investor's proposition in any part of the
world, except on a most trifling scale. I do not mean that a larger
anticipatory loan of a different character--issued, for example, in
Allied countries with the guarantees of the Allied Government, the
proceeds in each such country being handed over to the guaranteeing
Government, so that no new money would pass--might not be possible. But
a loan of this kind is not at present in question.
Yet a loan of from L50,000,000 to L100,000,000--and I repeat that even
this figure is very optimistic except as the result of a settlement of a
kind which engaged the active goodwill of individual Germans with
foreign resources and of foreigners of German origin and
sympathies--would only cover Germany's liabilities under the London
Schedule for four to six months, and the temporarily reduced payments of
last March for little more than a year.
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